ANTM dan MEDC

ADRO dan AALI

Year Trading Review dan Adaptasi Trading Style

Jika tahun 2008 kemarin style trading medium term menggunakan band atas dan bawah Bollinger Band menyelamatkan saya dari wipe-out di stock market, bahkan bisa untung sedikit, tahun ini style yang sama berakibat banyak loss opportunity yang seharusnya bisa didapat.  INDF dan BBCA adalah dua penyesalan terbesar dimana saya ambil di BB bawah, lalu jual di BB atas, memang untung besar, tapi jika ditahan...  (silakan cek sendiri chartnya)  Namun kalau BUMI, ANTM, LPKR, BLTA tidak dibegitukan dari awal, saya pasti sudah habis sekarang.  Memang manusia tidak ada puas-puasnya...

Saya banyak perhatikan saham tambang, perbankan, BG7 untuk kesempatan tradingnya, dan second/third liner namun beberapa sektor yang tidak pernah saya lirik malah menghasilkan gain lumayan.  Tahun depan, selama MA masih bentuknya begini (20 di atas 50), maka style akan saya rubah (kembali) ke MA-following.

Namun memang, tidak ada yang bisa menebak arah pasar.  Ini salah, itupun salah.  MA following berbahaya kalau pasar sedang sideways atau turun, dan saham-sahamnya pun berbeda. (lihat kasus2 di atas)

Di Indonesia ini banyak sekali "pengalih perhatian"/diversion dari trading template yang sudah dibuat.

Di bulan November dan awal Desember 2009 kemarin ada dua kali perpotongan garis MA, yang membuat saya menjadi ragu, apakah mau mulai sideways lagi, tapi di satu-dua minggu ini pasar tampaknya masih menuju ke atas.

OK, ini trading template tahun depan (asumsi market tidak neko2 amat):

Tidak menyentuh BG7 lagi. (high risk)

Minimalisi menyentuh second/third liner, dan saham perusahaan rugi. (bye2 LPKR, BLTA, FREN)

Ini selusin saham jagoan saya (per sektor):
CPO:  AALI, SGRO.
Astra:  ASII.
Bank:  BBRI, BBTN (I know, baru IPO), SDRA*.
Consumer:  INDF. (volume sudah tidak mendukung, tunggu koreksi)
Komunikasi:  TLKM. (hati2 sideways)
Infrastruktur:  PGAS.
Semen:  SMGR, INTP.
Tambang:  PTBA, ADRO, ANTM*, TINS*, MEDC*, INCO*.

Note: *perlu konfirmasi

Perhatikan MA-nya, terutama yang hijau (MA 50).  Yang dicari adalah yang bentuknya seperti ini:




Yang ini perlu konfirmasi lagi:




Sedikit lagi bisa menjadi bagus gambarnya, baru saya akan masuk.

Yang begini jangan lagi:




Penutup, semua tulisan di atas adalah hasil pengamatan saya sendiri, tapi hasil akhir tetap di tangan masing-masing trader.  Semua di atas bukan merupakan rekomendasi karena saya tidak bisa mempost cara saya memanage posisi.

Thanks for reading.

Bukan Doktrin Rahasia

Buddha quote (AN 3:129; I 282-83):
Ketiga hal ini, para bhikkhu, dilakukan diam2, bukan secara terbuka. Apakah ketiga hal tersebut? Urusan dgn perempuan, mantra para brahmana, dan pandangan salah.
Namun ketiga hal ini, para bhikkhu, bercahaya secara terbuka, tdk scr diam2. Apakah ketiga hal tersebut? Rembulan, mentari, serta Dhamma dan Vinaya yang dibabarkan oleh Tathagata.

Preparation for A New Year Resolution

I know, New Year is still about two weeks, but it is better prepared now than making it in a haste. It's a process of reviewing, and targeting (again). For some reason, I also refer to my last blog at Friendster: here. The tone there is more romantic somehow (read it, you'll see), full of hope and "young".

Here, it is more mature and the tonality is not as hopeful, not anymore.

Did I really "harden" this year?

What I'm looking for? Of course, my last year's resolution. I actually forget whether I put it in a book or online, but I'm sure it's there somewhere. I'll post when I get it.

Entrepreneurship

I think everyone that is in business at one time or another is feeling what I am feeling now. The feeling of loneliness, fear, no security, uncertainty, hasty anticipation, and others that I never felt when I am still working and living paycheck to paycheck. These things that deter one from starting his own business somehow... And I felt it several times before, but now, it is feeling so great.

Being able to manage my time as I see fit caused me more burden than ever and there comes the usual procrastination. Even here some things such as administration and money management is essential but it is not fun. In business, it is not only about getting as much as possible, but it is also about cutting cost, and keeping the business principle and mission in line.

Being able to try out new ideas also means that many more ideas are not working at first, but I have to keep trying and fixing things as it goes.

The dice has been casted. There is no turning back. Now I have chosen this road and I'm going to stick with it until I reach my goal here.

State of The World (Part I)

As I observe the state of the world and Indonesia silently, I came up with several revelations:

Things that is thought to be good is not so good if not used in moderation. We see the industry in general. It's a fact that every decade there is always an economic crisis looming ahead. Why is that happening all the time? Factories' goal is to maximize production to satisfy the demand so that the owner got maximum profit. Many businesses are built for the purpose of generating profit alone. Well, sometimes catasthrophe strucks and the supply is too much. See the CPO and oil last year. What happens next is too much supply and the owner is at risk of a loss. Well, owners are smart-ass, so instead of taking the loss to himself, he can drop it at his workers. We see layoffs to cut cost. Workers, knowing nothing that his piece of work, can't do nothing but cling to his social security, or join the revolution. The climate suddenly heats! Scary...

Medical professions are concerned with preservation of lives. In past, a deformed child just die. Nothing can be done to save him. Now, it is a different story. Every parent want his child to live. If he has the money, he can make an effort to save his child from early death. What happens is overpopulation. The world's population has doubled more in 200 years that in the previous two million years. That is insane! More population drives the land prices up the roof (see Japan), and drive those with out so much luck to live in a bad housing. Nature has it's own ways to cope with it. Catasthrophe, epidemic is two of them.

Over-industrialization and over-population caused new problems: nature over-exploitation, alineation, and city over-building. The climate here in Jakarta is so hot now, when it is supposed to be a rainy season, and when it rains, flood comes. Over-building. I need not explain about nature over-exploitation because it is sounded everywhere without any effort to stop it. People need paper, so cut the wood more! Stop it please. Alienation comes to worker that never see the result of his work and just get a minimum salary with the "added value" goes to the owner. And the worker tries to assimilate more capital so that he can exploit other workers, compounding the vicious cycle. Many times he failed and become bitter, and want to start a Revolution.

(I'm trying to think in material world when writing this. Like Spinoza, I might be materialist on the outside but idealist on the inside, so bear with me...)

Einstein once said something like "A problem can't be solved by the state of mind that you're in." means, I must transcend this thought first somehow. Again, and again.

Think of it. Find the solution.

Start small.

With yourself.